Lie to Me

In the aftermath of the 2016 Presidential election, I am numb.

How could this have happened?

Most polls said she was projected to win. They all predicted a comfortable Hillary Clinton victory.

Yet most every poll—at the local, state, and national level—completely missed Donald Trump’s election night win.

screen-shot-2016-11-09-at-6-14-32-pm

Forecast data from fivethirtyeight.com

Fivethirtyeight.com, a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, gave Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 28.6%. Hell, the Princeton Election Consortium had Hillary winning by as much as >99%.

But every poll, and every prediction based on it, is probabilistic in nature: There’s always a chance the leader loses.

And last night the poll leader lost.

While Hillary Clinton may have won the popular vote, she lost the electoral vote 279 to 228. And in the end, that’s the 270+ number that counts.

The math doesn’t lie.

But…but…

LIE TO ME, DAMMIT! LIE TO ME!

Say it isn’t so…

dataTell me this is all a bad dream.

Tell me those states that are too close to call are more blue than red. I mean WTF, Michigan?!

Tell me I’m not going to feel like we’ve just conceded decades of progress for women and minorities and any other subgroup who feels marginalized.

Tell me we’re going to repeal that damn popular vote/electoral college vote garbage.

You know what: Just tell me some math; some rational, logical, empowering math; not this bullshit pollster math. Give me some real y = mx + b shit. I need to take comfort in delta y and delta x right now.

y-mx-b

Pollsters will need weeks or months to sort through what happened. Meanwhile, we have the next four years to sort through this mess.

See you at the polls.

–Monie

#xMath #Election2016 #Michelle2020

 

Posted in Blog.

One Comment

  1. Statisticians knew the polls were not reliable because they can no longer get random samples – so essentially most of the samples they were basing their results on were probably biased. A second problem is that in this case, many people said either they were not going to vote for either or were going to vote for Hilary because they were not willing to admit publicly that they preferred Trump. But in the secrecy of the ballot, they voted their feelings.

    So the results were not surprising based on the polls; they were surprising because I did not know so very many people were at the point of accepting the things Trump brings in order to change their perception of the US situation.

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